John_s_version_3With the PRO12 going into a two week break for the Six Nations we decided to have a look at which teams appear to be the most likely to be competing in the play-offs. 

The remaining games for the teams in contention are: 

  ULSTER GLASGOW CONNACHT LEINSTER MUNSTER SCARLETS
RD12/9   LEINSTER (H)   GLASGOW (A) CARDIFF (A)  
RD18 GLASGOW (A) ULSTER (H) LEINSTER (H) CONNACHT (A) ZEBRE (H) OSPREYS (A)
RD19 CONNACHT (H) TREVISO (A) ULSTER (A) MUNSTER (H) LEINSTER (A) CARDIFF (H)
RD12   ZEBRE (A)        
RD20 ZEBRE (A) SCARLETS (A) MUNSTER (H) EDINBURGH (H) CONNACHT (A) GLASGOW (H)
RD21 LEINSTER (H) ZEBRE (H) TREVISO (A) ULSTER (A) EDINBURGH (H) DRAGONS (A)
RD22 OSPREYS (A) CONNACHT (A) GLASGOW (H) TREVISO (H) SCARLETS (H) MUNSTER (A)

Note:
1. Glasgow (2), Leinster and Munster all have catch up games to complete.
2. We also did the calculations for Ospreys and Edinburgh but they never got into the top four, even if they still have a vital say on how it all pans out! 

We used three methods for predicting how the final table was going to look. 

  1. A simple “guess” as to how the remaining games would pan out, well I say guess but this is the option that took the longest and caused the most controversy with Ulster finish in fifth place on 66pts with Connacht topping the table followed by Leinster, Scarlets and Glasgow. 🙁
  2. The second method looked at recent form, the last five matches to be exact, and we used their points percentage from those games and projected this over the remaining fixtures. This gives Connacht a runaway lead at the top with Leinster second, Scarlets third and, crucially, Ulster fourth. 🙂
  3. Finally we looked at season form, taking the points percentage from all the games this season, and projected that through to the end of the season. Leinster bump Connacht from top spot in this case but Scarlets and Ulster remain in third and fourth respectively. 🙂

PredictionTo end with we averaged up all the options added a touch of pixie dust and pulled out the final placements on the right with Connacht and Leinster ending up with the home draws against Ulster and Scarlets respectively. 🙂

I’d settle for that and I’d fancy our chances of getting a result down at the Sportsground,  though tickets might be hard to get hold off. 

The projected final in Edinburgh: Ulster v Leinster. 

 

#SUFTUM