Schools: The Front Row Union Rugby Rankings Week 2.

The more observant among you may notice a few additions to the rankings this week and last, so if you want to know what that’s all about be sure to click on the tab just above labelled ‘Ranking FAQs’ before diving into this week’s report. Also note that these rankings deal with games played up until the previous Saturday so any midweek games are included in the next set:

With RBAI (1st) defeating the previously unbeaten Rainey ES (7th) it’s little surprise that they have leapt above Methodist College (2nd) to claim the top spot. Also moving upwards this week are Ballymena Academy (9th) and Ballyclare HS (10th) whose victories came at the expense of fairly high rated teams, hence their improvement to a top-ten position. There is also a big improvement for Friends’ SL (18th) whose win over the favoured Omagh Academy (15th) has seen them improve their score from 181 to 262 and move up six places.

Heading in the opposite direction, BRA (13th) move down six places after their defeat to Ballymena, while Dalriada’s (21st) two defeats against Sullivan Upper (5th) and Foyle & L’Derry (17th) sees their score decrease to 292 to 190 their position slide four places.
Important fixtures for Sat 20th Oct:

Ballyclare HS v Wallace HS: Can ‘Clare continue getting their season back on track or will the strength of Wallace prove too much?

Foyle & L’Derry v Portora RS: Two closely ranked teams (17th and 19th respectively) go head-to-head; it should be close

RBAI v Methodist College: The first meeting of the ‘original old-firm’ this season. Can Methody take back first place or will RBAI show why they’re there?

Rugby Rankings 2012-13. Week 2

Rank	Team	Win %	Opponent Rating	Score	Form	Previous Position
1	RBAI	1.000	0.526	668	0.945	2
2	Methodist College	1.000	0.474	616	0.887	1
3	Campbell College	1.000	0.378	519	0.785	4
4	Wallace HS	0.667	0.599	513	0.771	3
5	Sullivan Upper	0.714	0.533	494	0.746	5
6	Down HS	0.667	0.567	462	0.707	6
7	Rainey ES	0.833	0.433	444	0.685	9
8	Ballymena Academy	0.500	0.569	428	0.661	11
9	Ballyclare HS	0.429	0.587	395	0.622	15
10	Limavady GS	0.714	0.354	394	0.617	8
11	RS Armagh	0.750	0.408	389	0.606	10
12	Bangor GS	0.500	0.535	381	0.591	13
13	Belfast Royal Academy	0.500	0.508	367	0.571	7
14	Portadown College	0.500	0.543	355	0.553	14
15	Omagh Academy	0.714	0.381	354	0.548	12
16	Grosvenor GS	0.400	0.536	298	0.484	16
17	Foyle & L’Derry College	0.500	0.436	267	0.454	18
18	Friends’ School	0.600	0.350	262	0.444	24
19	Portora RS	0.429	0.462	247	0.422	20
20	Banbridge Academy	0.286	0.557	210	0.377	19
21	Dalriada	0.250	0.542	190	0.351	17
22	Belfast HS	0.300	0.417	174	0.331	25
23	Regent House	0.167	0.700	173	0.320	21
24	Lurgan College	0.333	0.381	171	0.316	23
25	Coleraine AI	0.200	0.492	152	0.290	28
26	RS Dungannon	0.167	0.577	147	0.278	26
27	Cambridge House	0.250	0.375	142	0.269	22
28	Carrickfergus GS	0.167	0.469	128	0.248	30
29	Wellington College	1.000	0.063	105	0.223	27
30	Larne GS	0.000	0.625	51	0.157	29
31	Antrim GS	0.000	0.333	40	0.143	31
32	Strabane Academy	0.000	0.000	0	0.137	32

For those of you who keep up-to-date with Ulster Schools’ 1stXV rugby on this site we have some important news: starting immediately this season, we have improved the formula that generates the rankings you see posted on The Front Row Union website each week.

To help understand these changes and the ranking system in general, we’ve provided a few questions and answers below that should help to make things clearer:

What is the point of the ranking system?
This system was mainly designed so that every one of the 32 teams involved with Ulster Schools’ 1stXV rugby could be ranked using the data available, without the need for every team to have played against every other.

How is the ranking calculated for each team?
The three biggest factors taken into account are each team’s win percentage (number of wins, draws, and losses), opponent rating (the strength of sides faced) and competitive rating (their progression within the various competitions), alongside penalties for inactivity which prevent less active schools being ranked higher than they deserve. The formula produces a score for each team using these factors which then allows us to rank them in order from 1 to 32.

Are points/tries for/against taken into account?
Presently, no, and probably not in the near future for two main reasons: firstly, with a lack of scoreboards at matches, fans (and indeed coaches/players) often argue over the exact score of each match, so they are difficult to confirm; secondly, the margin of victory/defeat often has to do with the opponent played, which is already taken into consideration in the calculation.

Hey, my team defeated that one! Shouldn’t we be above them?
Not necessarily: the ranking for each team is based on the season as a whole, not a head-to-head basis, so often teams can be ranked below those which they have beaten. Don’t worry though, if you’re truly better than they are it will show eventually!

What does the percentage score of each team actually represent?
The decimal score assigned to each team represents a calculated estimation of that team’s ability. To put it another way, if every team played every other in a full season, the score is what win percentage would expected of each team, given the data available. This is why team’s percentages change week-on-week even if they haven’t played; it is dependent on the performance of every other team.

So, has scoring changed in the new system?
Yes and no: the original scoring is retained but has been renamed to be understood as measure of form. However, each team now receives a second score per week as a measure of performance. This second rating is simply a number between 0 to approx. 1000; the higher the number the better the performance. This second scoring system, unlike the first, allows teams to be compared week-on-week and even season-on season as the same score in any two weeks represents the exact same level of performance.

Is opponent strength now calculated any differently?
The new formula has been updated to better reflect the opponent strength faced by each team. Originally, an average was taken across the season as a whole up to that point, whereas now the average is calculated using the strength of opponent dependant on how strong they were when they actually played the team in question. This leads to a more accurate representation of a team’s performance and stops the situation whereby a team could see their performance improved/downgraded without actually playing that week.

Have any other changes been made?
Penalties for inactivity are still included but now accumulate from week to week if a school does not take part. This will help to prevent schools sitting higher in the table for an extended period as sometimes happened with the original system.

How are these numbers used to rank the teams?
Teams are placed in order firstly by score then by competitive rating, form and finally, opponent strength. If there is still a tie at this point other factors such as head-to-head record, competitive match-ups and inactivity penalties may be taken into account, but it is unlikely that this would be needed, and this has so far proven to be the case.