Forget about what the pundits say it’s what odds the bookies lay that really counts and, as we approach the first weekend of the 2012 RBS Six Nations, Paddy Power have France out in front at 11/8 to scoop the championship outright.
The French squad contain fourteen players from, Heineken Cup Quarter-finalists, Clermont and Toulouse and while neither, as we well know, completely dominated their Heineken Pool they still reek of class. Add in players of the calibre of Yachvili, from Biarritz, and Trinh-Duc, from Montpellier, as half backs and you have a pairing capable of making the others tick but it’s the strength of their bench that really sets them apart, with Harinordoquay, Parra, Maestri and Bauxis all champing at the bit to come on.
Yep, the French are worthy of their favourites tag and should have the chance to ease themselves into this year’s competition with an opening fixture against Italy at Stade de France. Having surprisingly lost to the Italians last season the French will be keen to make a statement against their continental neighbours and this should set them up nicely for those all important home fixtures against Ireland and England. Les Blues should have the championship wrapped up before they have to travel away to Wales on St Paddy’s Day.
[aside type="aside" status="closed"]France look to be the only realistic contenders for The Grand Slam this season with odds of 7/2. Ireland at 12/1 are the only other team worth considering but no winner is the most likely outcome, unfortunately it’s at a rather miserly 4/6. Click here for latest odds.[/aside]
Wales weigh in as second favourites at 3/1 but, to be honest, I would have given them 10/1 earlier in the week such was their injury list. Today they were able to welcome back Roberts and Priestland, which makes a big difference, but I think the odds are more a reflection of their World Cup form rather than the challenge they are going to put up.
Welsh teams have struggled in the Heineken, with only Cardiff progressing, and the loss of Rees, Jenkins, Wyn Jones and Lydiate is going to deny them a lot of grunt and athleticism up front. Add on the inevitable weight of expectation from their over confident fans and the fact that they face Ireland and England on the road and it’s looking like a difficult championship for the Welsh who’ll do well to finish in the top three. They may be in a position to do one of the other teams a favour though in that final game against France.
Ireland and England weigh in at 4/1 and with Ireland having three teams competing in the Heineken Cup Quarter-finals and England only one that would look to be rather generous odds on Ireland and ridiculously tight odds on the undisciplined English!
Only (Ulster bound 
) Tommy Bowe won’t be taking part in the Quarter-finals this year so on paper Ireland should have the strongest set of players, unless of course all three provinces rely unduly heavily on their overpriced imports! 8-O ! Unfortulately for Ireland it’s their style of play that is going to let them down with an over reliance on the forwards dominating their opponents and it’s likely that the Irish pack will run out of steam before the championship is over, much as they did in the World Cup. I can see them being done over by France along the way and possibly even, a resurgent, England on the final Saturday. They should do enough to tick the World Cup ranking boxes and finish second.
[aside type="aside" status="closed"]No, I’ve no more information on Tommy Bowe, though I did hear a whisper that there may be an announcement next week. Or maybe not![/aside]
England are virtual unknowns going into the competition. Even with a new coach and indisciplined players during the build up they have still managed to put out a useful enough looking side and if they get out of their forward dominated rut and actually play some rugby they could do some damage along the way. I suspect they will get off to a slow enough start, being done over by the Scots and possibly even Italy in their opening games, but they could be the form team by the time the competition ends, gawd help us!
I’ve liked the look of the Scots for some time now and the odds of 25/1 are rather generous but it all depends on whether their limited playing base can hang together for the duration of the championship. They could get off to a flier against The Auld Enemy and then face an injury ravaged Wales before hosting the French at Murrayfield if things go their way, but just as easily they could lose all three. I do think they will be pushig for a top three spot and could end up the surprises of the tournament.
[aside type="aside" status="closed"]Scotland at 30/1 for the Triple Crown would be my outside bet worth considering. I can only see it going to them or Ireland and Ireland’s a bit miserly at 3/1 but that final game against England on St Paddy’s day could be the deal breaker! Click here for the latest odds.[/aside]
It’s yet another year of getting to know each other for the Italians and their new coach Jacques Brunel from Montpellier which is reflected in the odds of 15o/1 . With 12 players from Treviso in the starting squad they will have a degree of familiarity and should prove hard enough to wear down but they really don’t have the ammunition to bother any of the big boys this season. A home win against a disjointed England is their best chance for an upset this season.
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