Another trip to Quins? That will do nicely!
The draw for the pool stages of the 2012 Heineken Cup takes place next Tuesday [7th June 2011] the time is still to be confirmed but as soon as we have it we’ll put it up in our Fixtures/Events sidebar.
This is the first time that Ireland will have four teams competing wit hconnacht joining the big boys for this particular European adventure thanks to Leinster winning the Cup this season.
The Qualifiers from each country are as follows.
England (7) - Bath Rugby, Gloucester Rugby, Harlequins, Leicester Tigers, London Irish, Northampton Saints and Saracens
France (6) - ASM Clermont Auvergne, Biarritz Olympique, Castres Olympique, Montpellier, Racing Metro 92 and Toulouse
Ireland (4) - Connacht Rugby, Leinster, Munster and Ulster Rugby
Italy (2) – Aironi Rugby and Benetton Treviso
Scotland (2) – Edinburgh and Glasgow Warriors
As before the teams will be ceded in groups of 6 according to the ERC Ranking based on their performance in previous European campaigns. This gives four tiers as follows:
Tier 1: Leinster, Toulouse, Munster, Cardiff, Biarritz, Leicester
Tier 2: Northampton, Clermont, Ospreys, Bath, Harlequins, London Irish
Tier 3: Ulster, Saracens, Gloucester, Glasgow, Scarlets, Edinburgh
Tier 4: Castres, Treviso, Connacht, Aironi, Montpellier, Racing-Métro
with Ulster unable to be drawn against teams from the same country or teams in the same tier. These teams are crossed out above.
So no trips to Scotland and there will be no sentimental return of Mark McCall to Ravenhill, for the pool matches at least, but there are still plenty of permutations, the only certainties being that we will face one English side and one French side in our group.
Thanks to mikerob over on the UAFC site, who went through the probabilities assuming a draw order the same as last year. Mike’s computations give a 46.7% probability that Ulster end up in either Pool 2 or Pool 5 with one or other of the French giants.
Pool 2 or Pool 5
Toulouse / Biarritz
Northampton / Bath / Harlequins / London Irish
Ulster
Treviso / Aironi
This offers some mouth watering possibilities as far as trips go with Biarritz, Quins / Bath and Treviso being my own personal selections for a group of exceptional jaunts and even with Biarritz and Quins in the pool I would still fancy our chances. However Toulouse and Northampton in the same group would be difficult to say the least and Toulouse and London Irish would just be downright unpleasant!
A slightly less enchanting option than my favoured choice above, weighing in at a probability of 23.3%, involves a trip to Cardiff, in Pool 4, at the expense of an Italian trip. It is made somewhat more palatable with the fourth tier French sides coming into play.
Pool 4
Cardiff
Northampton / Bath / Harlequins / London Irish
Ulster
Castres / Montpellier / Racing-Métro
A trip to Montpellier on the Mediterranean would certainly be a welcome jaunt but with the French side in this weekends Top 14 Final, after winning both Quarter and Semi finals away from home, they may be best avoided for the more beatable Castres. A slightly less picturesque setting than the sunny Med but as I’m oft reminded, by the FRUsters who made the trip last time, one of the best tips ever!
However if we are drawn into Pool 6 with English giants Leicester, the probabilities throw up a very difficult group indeed, with the following option having a 18.3% chance.
Pool 6 (Italian)
Leicester
Clermont
Ulster
Treviso / Aironi
Pleasant enough trips to France and Italy but this group would come down to whoever put’s the most past the Italians in a race that I could see Ulster losing. However a long overdue away win in France would more than likely be enough to propel Ulster to the top of the group and it’s abut time we added to our meagre draw on French soil many years ago.
Perhaps though, the most difficult group is, thankfully, our least likely option with a mere 11.3% probability.
Pool 6 (French)
Leicester
Ospreys
Ulster
Castres / Montpellier / Racing-Métro
Yeah we have the beating of the Ospreys but in reality they are replacing an Italian side and I’d certainly prefer a trip to Italy than Wales for the last group game if we were needing five points to qualify! Add in the likelihood of drawing Montpellier or Racing, who would be two of the form sides in France at the mo, and this could be an exceptionally tricky group indeed.
Hmm, a 1 in 9 chance of my least favourite pool. What do you bet?
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One Response to “Ulster’s Heineken Cup Permutations.”
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Nothing easy in Europe, playing wise but some great trips in prospect! I would like a lash at Montpellier, however I agree with you, it’s a long shot.
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