Recent encounters with Ulster give us an insight into today's final.
Recent encounters with Ulster give us an insight into today’s final and there could be no better judges as to how today’s Heineken Cup is going to turn out than the team who’s own hopes of silverware were dashed by both these sides over recent weeks.
A ten point win against Ulster by Northampton and an average of 12 point victories for Leinster in the last two encounters indicates that this game is going to be close and that certainly seems to be the way that most pundits are going, eventually falling on the side of a narrow win for our Mexican cousins. Our own Predictions League pundits, and there’s no finer bunch, have been a bit more forceful in their decision with an overwhelming 85% going for the “Boys in Blue” but based on the recent matches against Ulster, I’m genuinely sorry to say, I can’t see past Northampton for this one.
Regular readers will know that I’m not a fan of the Aviva Premiership, regarding it as an overhyped outlet for over pumped bullyboys generally low on match smarts, and for all their admirable qualities, Northampton would be the embodiment of the Premiership style. Ulster, when they had the ball, ripped them apart with relative ease, but therein lies the problem as Ulster struggled to get their hands on the ball for most of the second half with Northampton overpowering them with authoritative ease.
In their standard league fixture against Ulster, Leinster ripped them apart in an opening salvo showing precision and execution with a frequency that Northampton can only dream off, but the second encounter, in the League play-off, was a different matter with Ulster nullifying much that is good about Leinster by smothering O’Brien, but our boys just didn’t have enough in the tank to reign in Heaslip who made the difference with an outstanding display.
Quite simply, Northampton have shown that they do have enough up front to turn the tables and, rather than worrying about the destructive aspects of Heaslip and O’Brien, will be forcing Leinster to commit to the breakdown, sapping their strength and draining their energy as the match progresses. The breakdown is where this game is going to be won and, in my book, it is here that Northampton has the edge through sheer familiarity.
It’s the type of game Northampton play week in week out and it’s the game that will suit them down to the ground. Over recent weeks they’ve had bruising encounters, throughout their season they’ve had bruising encounters, it’s their game and they are good at it.
Leinster, of course, have had a few bruising encounters of their own and, by most people’s judgement, they have been the best team in Europe by some distance playing an exciting brand of rugby that has been a joy to watch, but the game they played against Ulster, and the number of injuries they shipped, precautionary or otherwise, was worrying. Unfortunately it looks like a game too far for Leinster at the end of a long season and unfortunately the best team in Europe are going to come up short.
Northampton by 10. Let’s hope I’m wrong – Allez Les Bleus!
Leinster: 15 Isa Nacewa, 14 Shane Horgan, 13 Brian O’Driscoll, 12 Gordon D’Arcy, 11 Luke Fitzgerald, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Eoin Reddan, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 Kevin McLaughlin, 5 Nathan Hines, 4 Leo Cullen (capt), 3 Mike Ross, 2 Richardt Strauss, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Jason Harris-Wright, 17 Heinke van der Merwe, 18 Stan Wright, 19 Devin Toner, 20 Shane Jennings, 21 Isaac Boss, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Fergus McFadden.
Northampton: 15 Ben Foden, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Jon Clarke, 12 James Downey, 11 Paul Diggin, 10 Stephen Myler, 9 Lee Dickson, 8 Roger Wilson, 7 Phil Dowson, 6 Calum Clark, 5 Christian Day, 4 Courtney Lawes, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Dylan Hartley (capt), 1 Soane Tonga’uiha.
Replacements: 16 Brett Sharman, 17 Alex Waller, 18 Tom Mercey, 19 Mark Sorenson, 20 Mark Easter, 21 Stuart Commins, 22 Shane Geraghty, 23 Joe Ansbro.
Let us know what you think below.
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2 Responses to “Heineken Cup: Leinster v Northampton”
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I think the big difference will be between the back rows, John. Also, Leinster will have too much quality throughout the team (as long as Drico does play and lasts for an hour or more). The Saints midfield looks relatively weak to me and even the back three of Leinster may be better. As you say, they just have to make sure to get enough ball throughout the game and they should win – but I agree it will be close. And a big shout out for Quins (and Clancy) for beating the Gougers last night.
Cheers,
Rocky.
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Yep, well done to Quins though I found it hard to get past the personalities in that one with both gougers and James “The Prick” Haskell up against the overrated Care, Easter and Monye! It does give Leinster reason to be confident though as Quins scored their try despite being well out gunned up front for all of the second half.
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