The play-off race continues, will Ulster stay the distance?
With the Dragons beating Cardiff this afternoon Ulster now know exactly what they have to do next weekend to get into the league play-offs and it’s looking like a trip to Dublin is on the cards.
To guarantee qualification Ulster need to get at least one point against the Dragons to finish ahead of the Ospreys in case they get a bonus against Aironi, Ulster finishing in fourth due to the higher number of League wins.
However (famous last words) my reckoning is that Cardiff will lose away to Scarlets and the Ospreys will fail to pick up a bonus point win at Aironi so Ulster are going to finish third irrespective of their result against the Dragons and the way the Men of Gwent are playing at home under exciting new coach Darren Edwards that’s no bad thing!
Ulster will, though, want to keep matters in their own hands and I think this will lead to an exceptionally exciting game next weekend against the Dragons as win, lose or draw, Ulster’s best chance of getting that vital point for qualification is to score four tries in an open, fast and furious game that will suit both Ulster and the rejuvenated Dragons. Kick nothing and go for a try every time should be Ulster’s game plan – and you know what, I think the Dragons will join in!
I can’t see Leinster lose to the Warriors next weekend, irrespective as to how they do this weekend in the Heineken, so even if Ulster win against the Men of Gwent it won’t be enough for Ulster to finish second.
League placings as at 19:00 Friday 29th April.
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | T | C | D | P | F | A | TB | LB | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Munster | 21 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 31 | 2 | 67 | 474 | 321 | 5 | 2 | 79 |
| 2 | Leinster | 21 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 46 | 31 | 0 | 55 | 457 | 333 | 4 | 3 | 65 |
| 3 | Ulster Rugby | 21 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 30 | 2 | 63 | 460 | 405 | 3 | 2 | 63 |
| 4 | Cardiff Blues | 21 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 28 | 9 | 66 | 456 | 354 | 3 | 3 | 60 |
| 5 | Ospreys | 21 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 56 | 36 | 7 | 56 | 541 | 408 | 6 | 7 | 59 |
So come 9:00pm next Friday night the final placings should look something like this -
| Leinster (2nd) | ||||
| Leinster | v | Warriors | Win | 69 |
| Ulster (3rd) | ||||
| Dragons | v | Ulster | Try Bonus | 64 |
| Ospreys (4th) | ||||
| Aironi | v | Ospreys | Win | 63 |
| Blues (5th) | ||||
| Scarlets | v | Blues | Losing Bonus | 61 |
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